Europe – Russia

This week Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that he had telephone conversations with Merkel and Macron, said that among other things they discussed the possibility of buying the Sputnik vaccine by some European countries.

This news comes after a recent study has shown that the Sputnik vaccine is more effective than Pfizer and Moderna, the Russian vaccine reaching 91.6% while the others do not exceed 90% efficacy after the second dose. The delay in the approval of the Russian vaccine by the E.U. is another stone in these relationships.

According to BBC figures, 70% of the oil that Russia exports to the world is going to Europe. The same goes for gas: 65% of its production goes to European countries – which import half of the energy they consume. In particular, it highlights the increasingly marked dependence on the countries of Eastern Europe and Central Europe. Similarly, Russia also does not want to lose 54% of its export revenue and solve a more complicated problem: going out looking for how to finance 47% of the Russian federal budget represented by these exports, according to reports published by the Russian governments and the European Commission.

Since 2014 with the Crimean Crisis the discrepancies between the two sides have not ceased and the game board has become increasingly uncertain. The penultimate assault was with the imprisonment of opposition leader Alexei Navalni, who must serve a two-and-a-half-year sentence, following a legal process initiated in 2014. Added to the difficult picture is the strong repression by russian police and the arrest of more than 4,000 people demanding navalni’s release. 

For its part, the Council of Europe threatened to put sanctions on people related to these events. The Russian response came very soon. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said: “We do not want to isolate ourselves from world life, but we must be prepared for it; If you want peace, prepare for war”.

In this way, the European Union is positioned in an unsoso comfortable area. It must manage a non-minor conflict, starting with a diplomatic relationship that has been worn out for many years and plays a strategic role for all countries on the continent. Moreover, the geopolitical changes currently taking place in the world, in the United States, the Middle East and Asia, are forcing the European Union to raise a clear profile of how it will adjust to these changes.

Either way, friction is a major problem in the current race to get Covid-19 vaccines. The Russians’ Sputnik vaccine could represent a major outlet for vaccine shortages in Europe. The problem of diplomatic relations can therefore acquire a more dramatic nuance. Europe wants to have a vaccine nearby, which can arrive quickly and en masse.

The European Union is aware of its economic, political and military challenges and complications – to which the health factor would now be added. Like it or not, Europe needs Russia. It is therefore critical that more strategic positions are generated in this regard. It will always be better to have Moscow as a neighbor/partner than as an enemy.

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