The political and military dynamics in Syria remain at the heart of a geostrategic realignment that reverberates across the Mediterranean and the globe. Over a decade of civil war and regional conflicts has transformed Syria into a chessboard where international interests clash. Amid this landscape, the United States plays an ambiguous role, Israel emerges as the main beneficiary, and powers like Iran, Turkey, and Russia recalibrate their strategies in an uncertain arena
United States: Strategic Withdrawal or Calculated Disinterest?
During Donald Trump’s presidency, U.S. policy towards Syria mirrored his broader Middle East approach: disengaging from “endless wars” and minimizing direct involvement in distant conflicts. Trump’s declaration that “Syria is a disaster, but not our friend” underscored this detachment.
The 2019 decision to withdraw U.S. troops and abandon Kurdish forces ahead of a Turkish incursion drew widespread criticism, even from within Trump’s party. Critics accused him of betraying a key ally in the fight against ISIS. Later, a limited mission was approved to secure oil fields in eastern Syria, leaving a strategic vacuum that other powers rushed to fill.
This ambivalence highlights a pattern: the U.S. does not aim to lead Syria’s reconstruction or mediate its political future. Instead, it seeks to avoid further resource depletion in a region no longer deemed a priority. Yet, Washington’s pragmatic support for the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) proved pivotal in defeating ISIS, revealing a calculated, interest-driven engagement.
The Kurds: A Stateless People on a Geopolitical Tightrope
With approximately 30 million people spread across Turkey, Iran, Iraq, and Syria, the Kurds remain one of the world’s largest stateless ethnic groups. In Syria, they established an autonomous enclave early in the civil war, maintaining a neutral stance between Assad’s regime and the rebels.
The SDF, composed largely of Kurdish fighters, became a critical U.S. ally in the fight against ISIS, capturing Raqqa in 2017, the caliphate’s capital. Despite this success, Kurdish autonomy has faced persistent threats, particularly from Turkey. Ankara views the SDF as an extension of the Kurdish insurgency within its borders and has used the Syrian National Army (SNA) to capture Kurdish-held territories near its frontier.
This precarious balance leaves the Kurds vulnerable to regional geopolitics, constantly navigating between their aspirations for self-rule and the harsh realities of external pressures.
Israel and the Golan Heights: A Strategic Asset
Among the shifting alliances and conflicts, Israel stands out as a significant beneficiary. With minimal regional opposition and unwavering U.S. support, Israel has advanced its expansionist agenda through targeted strikes on Iranian and paramilitary positions in Syria—actions that often go unnoticed on the global stage.
The Golan Heights, a strategic plateau, plays a pivotal role in Israel’s regional dominance. Captured from Syria during the 1967 Six-Day War, the Golan offers unparalleled military and surveillance advantages. Its elevation allows for direct oversight of Damascus and activities within Syria.
Beyond its military significance, the Golan is a vital water resource, supplying about a third of Israel’s water needs. Its fertile volcanic soil supports agriculture and wine production, adding economic value to its strategic importance. For Israel, retaining the Golan Heights is not just about security; it is essential to maintaining its foothold in an unpredictable region.
Iran: On the Defensive Across All Fronts
Iran’s position in Syria has eroded under the strain of international sanctions and a struggling economy. Israeli airstrikes frequently target Iranian assets in Syria, further limiting Tehran’s influence.
With dwindling resources and without robust Russian support, Iran faces a critical choice: continue its costly involvement in Syria or redirect attention to domestic challenges. This decline weakens Iran’s anti-Israel narrative and diminishes its standing among regional allies, signaling a retreat from the forefront of Middle Eastern geopolitics.
Turkey: A Missed Opportunity
Turkey’s ambitions in Syria have largely been thwarted. Focused on countering the Kurdish threat and managing the refugee crisis, Ankara has failed to assert itself as a decisive player in the conflict. Assad’s alignment with Moscow sidelined Turkey in key negotiations.
While Turkey retains some control over northern Syria, domestic pressures to justify its foreign policy costs are mounting amid an ailing economy. Erdogan’s government finds itself relegated to a peripheral role in a conflict it once hoped to lead.
Russia: The Costs of Intervention
Russia’s gradual withdrawal from Syria signals an acknowledgment of its limits in maintaining a significant presence. Though instrumental in propping up Assad’s regime during the war’s most critical phases, the economic and political costs of intervention have outweighed the benefits.
The loss of influence in the Mediterranean reduces Russia’s ability to project power into southern Europe and North Africa. Now, Moscow’s support for Assad appears more symbolic than strategic, leveraging it as a diplomatic card rather than a cornerstone of regional expansion.
The Future of Syria: A Fragmented Legacy
Syria’s current reality reflects profound transformations reshaping the Middle East and the Mediterranean. The Kurds, despite their pivotal role in defeating ISIS, face ongoing threats to their autonomy. Meanwhile, Israel consolidates its control over the Golan Heights, asserting itself as the region’s dominant power.
With the U.S. scaling back its involvement, Israel securing its strategic gains, and actors like Iran, Turkey, and Russia recalibrating their approaches, Syria’s future hinges on overcoming internal divisions and reclaiming its agency.
This geostrategic realignment not only redefines the balance of power in the region but also sets a precedent for how global powers navigate prolonged conflicts in an increasingly multipolar world.
